MUFON Sighting Reports and National Security: What We’ve Learned from the Spy Balloon Wave

Between January 25 and February 15, 2023, MUFON’s Case Management System (CMS) received twenty-nine sighting reports that, upon closer inspection, may have captured the now-infamous Chinese spy balloon—or others like it. What began as a surge of UFO reports soon revealed a story that bridges national security and citizen science.

Adding to the workload of MUFON’s field investigators, the day after the Ancient Aliens episode featuring MUFON aired, another 106 sighting reports poured in. With this unprecedented influx, our mission became clear: could our network of eyewitness reports help clarify the true flight path of the Chinese spy balloon? Could we verify the timeline published by major news outlets—or even uncover what they might have missed?

Tracking the Balloons

Two of the cases investigated have already been officially closed, both categorized as Identified Flying Object – Manmade (Chinese Spy Balloon):

• Case #128285: Yellowstone, Montana — February 1, 2023, 4:08 p.m.
• Case #128320: St. Charles, Missouri — February 3, 2023, 3:20 p.m.

To dig deeper, I personally reviewed over 350 cases reported between January 25 and February 15, focusing on sightings that described round or spherical objects, particularly large, white orbs consistent with balloon-like motion—slow-moving, no sharp turns, and no hypersonic speeds.

We applied a 90% confidence scale for identification, using photos and videos to confirm shape and behavior. Cases involving multiple or multicolored lights were excluded.

The Official Timeline—and the Gaps

According to Politico (February 5, 2023), the Chinese spy balloon’s journey began January 28, when it was detected over Alaska, north of the Aleutian Islands. NORAD tracked it over Canadian airspace on January 30, and it re-entered U.S. airspace over North Idaho on January 31. By February 1, it passed over Malmstrom Air Force Base, home to America’s intercontinental ballistic missiles in Montana.

On February 3, major outlets reported sightings across Missouri, Kansas, and Illinois, and on February 4 at 2:39 p.m., it was finally shot down off the coast of South Carolina.

But there’s a mystery: no major outlet reported the balloon’s location on February 2. ABC, Time, The Washington Post, and Politico all omit this date. Only an NBC report attributes a vague Pentagon comment about its “continued observation,” but no coordinates or visual confirmation were ever made public.

Why the silence on that day—and also on January 29? Were these simple tracking lapses, or was the balloon somewhere the public wasn’t supposed to know about?

Beyond the Official Story

Our MUFON database suggests the story may be even larger. While many reports don’t align with the published timeline, several may indicate multiple balloons over the U.S. during that same period.

After two rounds of data review:

• 16 cases were determined not to be spy balloons.
• 12 cases remain under investigation.
• 5 cases have been confirmed as likely spy balloons.

Three of those five align with the known February 2023 trajectory—but two others predate that event by nearly two years.

The Early Spy Balloons

The first of these earlier cases—Case #116396, dated June 15, 2021, 7:01 p.m. MST—occurred over NORAD in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Initially closed as “Manmade – Balloon,” this sighting gained new relevance after the 2023 incident. The original witness later contacted MUFON, convinced what he saw in 2021 was the same type of Chinese surveillance balloon.

The second, Case #129534, came from Sioux Falls, South Dakota, on June 5, 2021. Metadata from the witness’s photographs confirms the date and location. Notably, this sighting occurred just miles from nuclear missile silos east of Wall, South Dakota, and near Minuteman III ICBM sites in Pennington County.

Both 2021 sightings occurred within three days of each other, over sensitive U.S. defense zones—strong evidence that the 2023 event was not the first incursion of its kind.

Unanswered Questions

Where was the balloon on January 29 and February 2? MUFON has no confirmed reports from those dates—and neither does the press. It’s possible radar systems lost the object’s faint signature, or perhaps it passed over restricted zones deliberately left unmentioned.

Dr. Travis Taylor, physicist and UAP researcher, discussed the spy balloon’s stealth capabilities on The Rick & Bubba Show. He suggested that both citizens and pilots must have seen it—but many likely dismissed or withheld reports due to the lingering UFO stigma. “These balloons have been flying over the U.S. for over a year,” Taylor stated. “We have no defense systems for assets flying at 60,000 to 100,000 feet. Radar can barely detect them because there’s little metal—just solar panels to reflect a ping.”

Retired U.S. Army Colonel Jack Jacobs, now an NBC military analyst, echoed similar concerns. “They’re difficult to detect,” he said. “No heat signature, minimal radar return—and we don’t know what their payloads can do.” He warned that these incidents could escalate U.S.-China tensions, potentially triggering sanctions or trade disruptions.

The Takeaway

MUFON’s citizen investigators are proving that civilian data can play a critical role in identifying and tracking aerial incursions that intersect both UAP research and national defense.

The two 2021 sightings now verified as spy balloons demonstrate that foreign surveillance over sensitive U.S. airspace began well before the public or Congress was aware. It raises a chilling possibility: what else has passed above our skies, unnoticed or unreported, under the cover of UFO confusion?